| It Don't Add
Up ...
By: David J. Wardell
© 1999 By: David J.
Wardell. Reproduction or redistribution in any form without
written permission is strictly prohibited. |
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| In his November 28, 1999 newsletter, "Seidman's
Online Insider," Robert Seidman observes that this year's
predictions as to the amount of online holiday spending are hard to
rationalize.
Talk at the moment is that between $4 billion and $6 billion will be spent online this holiday season by 4 million online shoppers. Did anyone do the math on these predictions? In Seidman's words, "Do we think 4 million will spend more than $1000 each? I don't. Do we think 8 million will spend $500 each? Still no." This comes back a very basic question I've asked in these pages and in print several times: Where do these numbers come from? You and I have a right to much more detailed information than is ever forthcoming from the Internet wizards (especially those making predictions about the online travel market) as to methods, sample size, question composition, and so on. The undeniable fact that the market and potential are very large often lead us to accept information uncritically because it seems as though it should be right. They'll make it up in volume, I suppose ... |
