| At the start of 1999 the
latest round of what passes for industry research has made its way into view over the last
few months. Although notoriously over-surveyed, the travel industry remains awash in bad
data, ill-conceived and poorly executed research projects, and self-serving studies that
are relevant more to the next round of funding or the next newsletter sale than to
developing a real understanding of markets and trends. Eventually the industry may get
better at labeling useless research for what it is, but for now the very few good studies
routinely drown amidst the hyperbolae of research that cant connect with real
insightor those that connect all too well because the result was fairly evident
before the process began.
Nowhere is the problem more acute than in online travel sales. High-priced research
typically reinforces conventional wisdom and assumptions while key customer and behavior
questions remain unresolved.
Ive wondered aloud previously why the major trade groups show such slight
interest in these issues. If the "Interactive Age" has such monumental
consequences (encouraging commission cuts being just one), what precisely could be more
important to their members?
Here are a few suggestions for modeling a new research project. Hopefully it will help
you to appreciate the limitations of todays travel research and be positioned to
improve it in the future. Im especially interested in your comments and observations
on this topic.
Successful studies need wide participation and sponsorship. Those funded and controlled
by a single company or clique are not necessarily bad, but this adds complexities and
concerns that are avoidable through planning and execution that strives to include more
viewpoints. Addressing the needs of a broad constituency increases both value and
integrity.
Limiting control over a study to its sponsors or other "insiders" cannot but
color the result as self-serving. Enlightened researchers learned along ago that the
"best and brightest" often dont work for them and they seek such talent
out wherever they can find it.
The industry doesnt need another round or praise describing how great the
opportunity of the day may be. Whats needed is thorough research and careful answers
to key questions that relate to real business concerns and allow the reader to reliably
take action. This simple definition disqualifies most of the fluff-laden e-commerce
studies of the past few years. There are people who know how to do real
researchits a mystery when their input is so clearly lacking in the major
reports of today.
As there are competent researchers there are also competent interpreters who can make
connections between abstract numbers and real business situations. Their work ought to by
key to any research project. A study lacking informed, usable conclusions should be first
into the worthless bucket.
Theres a saying that teaches thus: "premises that are absurd when projected
into the future were absurd to begin with." Researchers and readers alike need to
apply logical tests in order to understand the validity of a studys conclusions.
For instance, most predictions about the fantastic growth of online travel purchases
assume a level of personal computer use and literacy throughout society that is simply
absurd within the time-frames the studies consider.
Clearly studies are failures when they cannot withstand the test of reasonableness.
Research is ongoing and the "final word" on most travel topics will likely
never be written. Successful research projects are willingly subject to critical review
and are revised in light of new viewpoint and data. A premise holding that the oracle has
now spoken and nothing further may be added only highlights the underling weakness of the
research in question. |